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Forum:2011 Atlantic hurricane season/Arlene
01L.ARLENE AoI: Caribbean Most models are developing a storm in the West. Caribbean/Bay of Campeche/GOM coming from the tropical wave and the monsoon low in the Caribbean a few days from now. The system looks very very promising, and the conditions seem to be optimal for development, unlike what 94L encountered earlier this month. The models are showing an Alex-like track when the system exits the Yucatan. Because of the model agreement, I'm gonna go out on a limb and say this should be Arlene, and this is a storm to watch out for. Darren23Edits|Mail 03:00, June 24, 2011 (UTC) Yay!! Nice to see activity in the Atlantic. I hope this froms by the start of July. (A side note: If this forms between July 1st and 10th, my prediction will win!! Andrew444 14:43, June 24, 2011 (UTC) ::The wave seems to be merging nicely with a monsoonal low over Central America, if it gains a few more tropical characteristics it should be on the TWO within the next two days. And Andrew, the models having this forming in 3-5 days and then making landfall in June, this wave will be pretty much gone by July even if it forms or even if it does not. Yqt1001 14:47, June 24, 2011 (UTC) :: ::If this thing continues to organize, it will probably be mentioned on the TWO ::either today or tomorrow. What would everybody else give of it being mentioned ::on the 2:00 TWO? 72.184.185.159 16:18, June 24, 2011 (UTC) I'm not so sure. My prediction, as well as HurricaneSpin's and Owen's will also come true if it forms on July 1-10. I'm not so worried as of yet... I mean, we are still far from the peak of the season. We are slowly ramping up in activity, but I won't expect activity until August or September. Remember last year always, we had a 19-storm season season and we didn't really begin until late August and we began at about this time of year last year with Alex and Darby in the EPac. Anyhow, I will not really watch this one unless it doesn't affect land; as I mentioned in the Pacific forum, Atlantic storms are deadly and destructive, and are heartbreaking disasters to the people they affect. Ryan1000 16:21, June 24, 2011 (UTC) For the 2:00 TWO, already passed the TWO and no yellow circle. I think though it might to be declared an invest at some point. OWEN2011 18:10, June 24, 2011 (UTC) It hopefully won't be so bad, but then again, it also has a likely chace for developing. It's trailing from a cold front, so a landfall near Florida may be likely with this storm as it contiues to the ENE. the area of T'storms in the Caribbean may also develop, and we have some more disturbed weather south of Central America, which could become future Calvin. Development, if any, will likely be slow to occur. Ryan1000 20:44, June 24, 2011 (UTC) 8PM TWO, still nothing mentioned. Yqt1001 02:08, June 25, 2011 (UTC) :Okay, this was probably a false alarm. Apparently, many models have dropped this system. BTW, last time I checked, models aren't showing Calvin. Darren23Edits|Mail 04:11, June 25, 2011 (UTC) Gah, I guess we'll have to wait. We're probrably gonna kick into gear later. Ryan1000 16:27, June 25, 2011 (UTC) :::I've given up on this system, looks like the first storm will be when I'm on my vacation to the east coast of Canada. Yqt1001 18:10, June 25, 2011 (UTC) A TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...HONDURAS...AND NICARAGUA. TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS UNLIKELY WHILE THE WAVE INTERACTS WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...AND WITH CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS WHERE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. Yqt1001 00:02, June 26, 2011 (UTC) :I'm not going to completly give up on any development from this thing, but the chances aren't good, let alone am I personally expecting much out of it. Ryan1000 00:32, June 26, 2011 (UTC) ::An update for what the NHC says: FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... A TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING CLOUDINESS AND DISORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER HONDURAS...NICARAGUA...AND THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. LITTLE IF ANY DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED AS THE WAVE MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TODAY. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO EMERGE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ON MONDAY WHERE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...THIS DISTURBANCE COULD BRING PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS TO PORTIONS OF EASTERN MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. It's up a little bit, but it still will be slow to develop, if it even does develop at all. Ryan1000 14:47, June 26, 2011 (UTC) :::Models back on board with this system. Seems to me that it will only have a small window of opportunity before it makes landfall in Mexico. At most, this will be a very weak tropical storm. Darren23Edits|Mail 15:10, June 26, 2011 (UTC) ::I wouldn't be surprised if this gets invested into soon. Yqt1001 15:20, June 26, 2011 (UTC) ::NOUS42 KNHC 261515 WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL. 1115 AM EDT SUN 26 JUNE 2011 SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD) VALID 27/1100Z TO 28/1100Z JUNE 2011 TCPOD NUMBER.....11-026 I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS 1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS. 2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE LOW-LEVEL INVEST IN BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 21.0N 95.0W FOR 28/1800Z. What is this? 173.168.145.18 17:03, June 26, 2011 (UTC) :::Looks like the NHC thinks it will start rapidly developing when it reaches the BoC. I can't say I disagree there, but will it develop quick enough to be TD1? We shall see. Yqt1001 18:19, June 26, 2011 (UTC) ::The shear in the Bay of Campeche is low and SST's are high, but there isn't much space it will have between there and mainland Mexico, like Karl for last year. Ryan1000 19:57, June 26, 2011 (UTC) :Another interesting thing to note, that the models didn't predict, is how high it's passing over the Yucatan. The models said that it would pass over Belize, but it's pretty much consolidating over Cancun right now, looks like this storm actually has a chance at being TD1. Yqt1001 20:39, June 26, 2011 (UTC) : : :This system looks like its trying to relocate to the north. I think now that may increase chances :if it has more time over the Bay of Campeche. I think we might see 30-40% 8:00 TWO. OWEN2011 21:38, June 26, 2011 (UTC) :::@Yqt1001: Are we looking at the same thing? I see the basic center of it near Chetumal/Belize-Mexico border. I do believe the models are taking this storm too low and I think this storm has a decent chance of not just TD intensity but being Arlene. Darren23Edits|Mail 22:37, June 26, 2011 (UTC) :::::Arlene will never be retired! Heed my words! Ryan1000 22:53, June 26, 2011 (UTC) ::::I think we are looking at the same storm Darren, but looking at the winds, I still think that the center is trying to form closer to Cancun than Belize. The storm itself seems to be centered over Belize, but I am pretty confident that it isn't. But in the end you'll probably be right Darren, what do I know? :P I've only been tracking for not even a year so far. And a lot of the models seem to take it up to TS strength now, it's nice to see some model confidence in this again! And yes Ryan, I doubt this storm will be able to convince Mexico to retire it, if they didn't retire Karl I don't know the next time they'll retire a storm. Yqt1001 23:01, June 26, 2011 (UTC) ::::Still at 20%, but do I have to tell you too, Karl did not get retired becuase it did not destroy the economy. In fact, it /might/ have destroyed, the drug dealers crop land, so that helps the goverment with the drug war.YE [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Forum:2010_Pacific_hurricane_season T'ropical] [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Special:Contributions/YE '''C'yclone] :::::Yet alone will it be bad enough for the United States if not Mexico. I meant Arlene is the most commonly used name in the history of the Atlantic Basin, and if this storm becomes Arlene, it likely won't cause enough destruction for it to be retired, so it will come back yet again in 2017! Anywho, I hope we get some more activity out there. Ryan1000 00:01, June 27, 2011 (UTC) ::::: :::::I guess I overestimated for the TWO. I another subject, where's Andrew? OWEN2011 00:05, June 27, 2011 (UTC) ::::::Can you please ident your posts? idk where Andrew is. YE [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Forum:2010_Pacific_hurricane_season 'T'ropical] [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Special:Contributions/YE 'C'yclone] 00:09, June 27, 2011 (UTC) :::::I dunno what you are talking about YE, you didn't ident your post either. Anyways, the NHC seems to take the 48 hour limit more serious this year. Even though it's looking more likely for it to form, it's not looking that likely for it to form in the next 48 hours so they'll leave it at 20%. I'm actually a bit surprised they kept it at 20%, I was expecting 10% because of land interaction. Yqt1001 00:26, June 27, 2011 (UTC) :::::::Yes, I did by the way. When you ident, you ident one to two more : than the prevous indenter. YE [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Forum:2010_Pacific_hurricane_season 'T'ropical] [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Special:Contributions/YE 'C'yclone] 00:35, June 27, 2011 (UTC) ::::::This [link] doesn't look indented to me. Also why does it have to be more? why not less? I personally like going back a bit, because when we reach 7 colons the page gets quite a bit longer because of the less space for text. But nonetheless, I think we are going to have a record year for Forum:Hurricane Wikia edits (pretty obvious since this AoI has gotten so much attention and it's not invested yet!). At this rate promising AoIs are gonna need storm event archives! Yqt1001 00:44, June 27, 2011 (UTC) ::::::::It makes it easier to read. After 8 indetions, don't indent. YE [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Forum:2010_Pacific_hurricane_season 'T'ropical] [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Special:Contributions/YE 'C'yclone] 00:48, June 27, 2011 (UTC) :::::::Well Darren, you are right, the center is pretty much over the northern Belize border. Now let's hope I am right/lucky with my crazy bet for the strongest winds this year. Yqt1001 01:48, June 27, 2011 (UTC) :::::::::Why would you want to be correct with you prediction if that hurricane impacts land? YE [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Forum:2010_Pacific_hurricane_season 'T'ropical] [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Special:Contributions/YE 'C'yclone] 02:11, June 27, 2011 (UTC) :::::::You don't need to exactly ask for people to come; I think this year will be a record for hurricane Wiki activity; we already have two archives, one on the pre-season and another on Arani, in addition to the pre-season archive in the EPac forum, the archives on Aere and Songda in the WPac forum, and all of the named storm archives in the SHem forum(which, before this year, couldn't fill a full page's worth of attention). Anyhow, it's looking good for development, and I am looking forward to Arlene coming from this storm, but not a 190 mph monster, ect. Ryan1000 02:20, June 27, 2011 (UTC) ::::::I was never wishcasting a 190mph on the coast of Cuba, if anything I am sorta expecting the storm to be of CV origin (where it goes after that I don't know). I just have a strange feeling that we will get a superstorm this year (which I'm starting to doubt because of Megi last year). We shall see, and we shall see what happens to this AOI too. Yqt1001 02:58, June 27, 2011 (UTC) ::::::::::::::BTW, I archived Awesome Adrian.YE [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Forum:2010_Pacific_hurricane_season 'T'ropical] [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Special:Contributions/YE 'C'yclone] 03:06, June 27, 2011 (UTC) ::::::::::::Nice name. I will think of him as my most favorite storm of 2011, if not second to Arani. Ryan1000 03:09, June 27, 2011 (UTC) :::::::::::Adrian is deserving of such an awesome name. Adrian will be #1 or #2 (or #3 depending if my 190mph super-cane develops) for me for sure. Yqt1001 03:10, June 27, 2011 (UTC) ::::::::::I archived Beatriz just now as well, but I didn't really nickname her, she wasn't awesome. Good 'ol star for originality, Beatriz. Also why not nickname Rick's archive in 2009 "Righteous Rick?" Sounds like a good nickname for an epic win like him. Ryan1000 03:17, June 27, 2011 (UTC) :::::::::So we are going to nickname every rare/major fish hurricane now? :P And is it just me who thinks that every named storm in the EPac and ATL will be archived and the only things left in the month section will be the invests and the AOIs? Yqt1001 03:26, June 27, 2011 (UTC) ::::::::They are awesome and epic wins, TBH =). I would like that. Also, if you haven't seen it yet YE(or anyone else), ::::::::::Should we name Dora's archive (when it forms), Dora the explorer. :P YE [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Forum:2010_Pacific_hurricane_season 'T'ropical] [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Special:Contributions/YE 'C'yclone] 03:43, June 27, 2011 (UTC) :::::::::LOL. We so should, if it is a long-lived and long tracking storm like, say the 1999 Dora. Ryan1000 04:32, June 27, 2011 (UTC) ::::::::: Are we getting a little off topic? This discussion is about the lowpressure in the Caribbean. The low pressure looks to be having some land interaction. OWEN2011 14:53, June 27, 2011 (UTC) Ah, we aren't going to get too off-topic, anyhow, about this area of disturbed weather, I could see it making Arlene once it gets into the Gulf. Ryan1000 15:45, June 27, 2011 (UTC) ::If it wasn't so monsoonal in nature it would have a better chance. I don't know if 48 hours is enough time for this storm to fully organize, but lots of models still show it developing, so there is still hope. Yqt1001 16:08, June 27, 2011 (UTC) :::What do you guys think the TC Formation probability will be at 2:00? :::A. 0% :::B. 10% :::C. 20% :::D. 30% or higher :::67.9.33.94 17:00, June 27, 2011 (UTC) ::::Well this forum isn't really active enough for polls, but I'll go with D, tomorrow (and the day after that) is pretty much the now or never day, so they have to bump the odds eventually. Yqt1001 17:11, June 27, 2011 (UTC) :::: :::: In my opinion I would give 50/50. OWEN2011 17:28, June 27, 2011 (UTC) A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY NOT CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...'''30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE AREA ON TUESDAY...IF NECESSARY. I win! Also seems that we might have the first recon in the atl tomorrow. Not sure if it's invested yet. Yqt1001 17:36, June 27, 2011 (UTC) I'm surprised it's not invested yet at 30%. Maybe will be invested later today. OWEN2011 17:55, June 27, 2011 (UTC) 95L.INVEST Well it's been invested now! (damnit Owen your above comment conflicted me!) And its nice to be able to finally retire the longest AOI section ever on this forum (probably). Even if this doesn't form, I think I see a storm event archive. Yqt1001 17:57, June 27, 2011 (UTC) :Some 2006 storm probably owns the record (the archives are on Wikipedia). YE [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Forum:2010_Pacific_hurricane_season T'ropical] [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Special:Contributions/YE '''C'yclone] 18:01, June 27, 2011 (UTC) ::This forum was around in 2006? Yqt1001 18:14, June 27, 2011 (UTC) :: :: :No, but before the 2007 season, the policy was use the talk pages on wikipedia as forums. Now we have this seperate place called Wikia. Hurricane Wiki was launched in May 2006, but came back again(this time for good), in April 2007. Anyhow, this AOI is still not over yet, but it all depends on how long it stays around before becoming Arlene. Ryan1000 18:17, June 27, 2011 (UTC) ::I see we have 95L. Not surprising to me. If it organizes more, it may become TD1 by Thursday timeframe. OWEN2011 18:20, June 27, 2011 (UTC) :::Ah, makes sense (Ryan). I didn't even own a computer back then so I wouldn't know. And yes, I know this is still an AOI, but the section above is finally over, scrolling on that section was starting to bug me. Getting close to the point where I was hoping for an invest today. Also someone made a good comparison using all the good models, 3 out of 5 show a TD/TS making landfall in Mexico on Thursday (June 30th). Now that we have an invest we should be able to see more clearly what the models think of this storm. Yqt1001 18:22, June 27, 2011 (UTC) ::If it stays around for two or three more days without becoming Arlene, We may have to archive this storm even though it wasn't named. I still do think Arlene will come onto us, but probrably not be so bad. I believe Alberto's Archive in 2006 holds the record in question, but there is a chance that (Arlene) may surpass it. Ryan1000 18:33, June 27, 2011 (UTC) ::::Actually, Chris' and Wilma own the record. For the EPAC, Ioke owns the record. YE [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Forum:2010_Pacific_hurricane_season 'T'ropical] [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Special:Contributions/YE 'C'yclone] 19:06, June 27, 2011 (UTC) :::I did a word count of those 3 articles up to when the storm became a tropical depression and what we have so far..Chris wins with nearly 4000 words, followed by Alberto with 3300 words, followed by "Arlene" (if it gets named) with about 2800 words (not including the off topic discussion about Dora the Explorer and Awesome Adrian). Wilma comes last with a measly 1000 words. If this storm doesn't form for another day, this could be the record. Yqt1001 19:13, June 27, 2011 (UTC) ::Well, this storm may be the longest talked about here, but if you include the wikipedia archives, then this storm isn't close to 1st place. Ioke makes sense; it had an all-time record high ACE from any storm worldwide, and that storm became removed from the list because it had no real Hawaian Meaning, rather than specifically because it hit Wake Island or Johnston Atoll. I think Arlene will come onto us, but it probrably won't get anywhere past TS intensity. Ryan1000 19:22, June 27, 2011 (UTC) :::How many words did Ioke have? YE [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Forum:2010_Pacific_hurricane_season 'T'ropical] [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Special:Contributions/YE 'C'yclone] 19:31, June 27, 2011 (UTC) ::::4,566 words fro Ioke! Wow. Daniel had 4,429 as well. Wilma had a total of 11,000 words while Dean had about 10,000 words. Alberto had 13,100 words and Chris had 12,000 words. Yikes! Keep spamming, and we will set the record. YE [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Forum:2010_Pacific_hurricane_season 'T'ropical] [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Special:Contributions/YE 'C'yclone] 19:36, June 27, 2011 (UTC) :::We have thus far had thousands of words on the 2011 Hurricane Wiki, though worldwide, i'm not entirely sure how many. We are just getting more and more attention out there. We will set an all-time record on this Wiki if it keeps up at this rate. Ryan1000 20:34, June 27, 2011 (UTC) ::::Agreed 100%. We will be as big as Storm2k soon. and I hope this eventually makes the project active again. YE [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Forum:2010_Pacific_hurricane_season 'T'ropical] [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Special:Contributions/YE 'C'yclone] 20:47, June 27, 2011 (UTC) :::Hurricane Wikia is definitely on course for its most active season ever. What shocks me the most is that pretty much all posts so far this year have been made by me, Ryan and YE. Maybe we should redefine active, because as far as activity goes, Storm2k didn't even have a section for 95L until it got invested today, whereas we have been talking about it for a while. Maybe activity should be where >6 members are posting within a few minutes? I know that in the peak season we will achieve this (and we could probably now..me, ryan, ye, darren, andrew, owen and fiona. There seven semi-active members!). Yqt1001 20:52, June 27, 2011 (UTC) ::::Plus atomic and hurricane spin are not very active, but I have contact with them. YE [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Forum:2010_Pacific_hurricane_season 'T'ropical] [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Special:Contributions/YE 'C'yclone] 20:56, June 27, 2011 (UTC) :::::Yeah some of the older members are disappearing, but that is expected from any online community. But I just remember that I will be on a 2 month trip starting next week, so I won't be around as much. But the next week I'll be on a lot since my last exam will be over in nearly 12 hours. Looks like the activity wont be as much as it could be if I was online all day. Oh well, gonna be a fun trip to Newfoundland! =D Yqt1001 21:00, June 27, 2011 (UTC) ::::::Well, have fun. Atomic is right now away too per what he said on IRC. This wikia would be about 10 times more active if it was not for the lack of IRC support. A large argument over there last year forced HurricneSpin, atomic, and Darren to become less active on Wikipedia, and probably on here as well. So, this might not get active that quickly, but wasn't it a couple week ago when we were all calling the forums dead. YE [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Forum:2010_Pacific_hurricane_season 'T'ropical] [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Special:Contributions/YE 'C'yclone] 21:12, June 27, 2011 (UTC) :::::Thanks! Yeah I was calling it dead because of the lack of members, but Owen and Andrew popped up and put some life in here again. Fiona also showed up around then too to help out with the activity. Also what is this IRC you always talk about? And we might be straying quite a bit off topic right now..I guess we'll see what happens at 8PM to revive the topic again. Yqt1001 21:19, June 27, 2011 (UTC) ::::::This may revive the discussion until the next TWO. POLL TIME! What will chances be ::::::at the 8:00 TWO? ::::::A. Lower than 30% ::::::B. 40% ::::::C. 50% ::::::D. 60% or higher ::::::OWEN2011 21:35, June 27, 2011 (UTC) :::::::Hmm. I think no change/maybe bumped to 40%... HurricaneFiona 21:50, June 27, 2011 (UTC) :::::I'll go with A or B (A being 30%). I'm going to make my own poll... :::::How strong will 95L get before it makes landfall in Mexico? :::::A. 35mph or less :::::'''B. 40mph :::::C. 45mph :::::D. 50mph :::::E. 55mph-190mph :::::F. 190mph or more :::::I bolded by opinion Yqt1001 21:51, June 27, 2011 (UTC) ::::I hate edit conflicts... I think it will be a minimal tropical storm as well. For the record, the number of words I have counted on Hurricane Wiki in 2011 is much, much higher than the ammount we had at this time in 2007 and 2008. If this keeps up, when we do get a big storm in 2011, We will get a shipload of visitors in the Retirements at a Glance section, just like we did in 2007 and 2008. I think we have a good chance of an active season. Not only for named storms and hurricanes, but an all-time yearly record on Hurricane Wiki. I think it will not get past a minimal TS, but it's worth mentioning on here either way, and it's a sign of what is yet to come. Ryan1000 22:03, June 27, 2011 (UTC) :::: :::: :::: POSS T.C.F.A. XX/INV/95L MARK 20.85N/91.36W :::::I think we might have a red circle a 8:00. OWEN2011 23:44, June 27, 2011 (UTC) ::::::Ill go with 40-50%. Ryan, how many words did 2007 and 20008 have total? How many do we have right now? YE [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Forum:2010_Pacific_hurricane_season T'ropical] [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Special:Contributions/YE '''C'yclone] 23:31, June 27, 2011 (UTC) SATELLITE PICTURES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER DEFINED. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT CURRENTLY CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT...THESE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...'''50 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD. Looks like we will see the first red circle of the atlantic season tomorrow. Yqt1001 23:35, June 27, 2011 (UTC) :YAY! I was right. YE [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Forum:2010_Pacific_hurricane_season T'ropical] [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Special:Contributions/YE '''C'yclone] 23:40, June 27, 2011 (UTC) ::I give a 20% chance of all of us waking up to TD1. OWEN2011 23:44, June 27, 2011 (UTC) ::::Ill check the word count of this page. YE [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Forum:2010_Pacific_hurricane_season 'T'ropical] [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Special:Contributions/YE 'C'yclone] 23:49, June 27, 2011 (UTC) :::I think there is a 5% chance of waking up to TD1. There is no way that a system that is this weak can form during DMIN. Usually the effects of DMIN only start to disappear once the NHC classes it at 70% chance of forming in the next 48 hours (and then classified during DMIN since the storm didn't dissipate fully). If DMIN doesn't effect the storm tonight, then I bet we'll see it up to 70%+ in the morning. But we'll see. I'm kinda expecting Arlene out of this, I am getting close to the point that I will be surprised if it doesn't form into TD1. You never know, so you got to prepare for anything. Yqt1001 00:34, June 28, 2011 (UTC) ::::So far we have 20K words. Hurricane Wikia in 2007 got 70 K, 80K in 2008, and 2009 we got about 20K, and in 2010 we got 60K. YE [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Forum:2010_Pacific_hurricane_season 'T'ropical] [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Special:Contributions/YE 'C'yclone] 00:39, June 28, 2011 (UTC) :::So we already have beaten 2009. Not surprising really. In the 2011 totals did you include the pages that are new to this year (that comprised of pretty much me and Ryan)? You know..Those SHem basins pages. But yeah, at this rate there should be no excuses why we don't have a record year. Yqt1001 00:52, June 28, 2011 (UTC) ::Yqt, we must be onto a record-active year here... 2007 and 2008 had a ton of activity... and on the Atlantic standards, we have had about 3,400 words on this page thus far in 2011, and 4,000 counting the archives on Arani and the pre-season. At this time in 2007, we had about 5,200 words on the May and June archives, and only 1,200 at this time in the Atlantic in 2008. The EPac has thus far totaled about 4,500 words on it's page, and 6,800 counting the archives on Adrian, Beatriz, and pre-season. To put this in prespective, 2007 had about 3,200 words on the EPac in the ENTIRE season, and 2008 had about 3,000 words in the ENTIRE EPac season as well. The WPac has about 200 words on the main page and 1,800 counting the archives; the SHem had about 700 words on the main page, and 4,600 counting all of the archives, and furthermore, the NIO has had about 200 words thus far. As of now in 2011, we have had about 17,400 words on hurricane Wiki. Worldwide, we had a mere 6,000 or so in 2007, and about 1,600 in 2008. And furthermore, both year's were extremly active. 2008 had roughly 43,950 words worldwide. Of those words, 38,800 of them were from the North Atlantic... goes to show people really care about this basin. We had roughly 7,700 words in the retirements at a glance or other sections, about 21,800 on the storm event archives, and about 10,500 on the monthly archives. The EPac and WPac had about 3,000 and 2,000 words in the entire seasons there, and the NIO/SHem had about 100 words. 2007 currently holds the record in question with about 58,450 words worldwide and about 51,650 of them were from the North Atlantic(!!). And at this time in 2007, we had only 5,200 words in that basin, versus the about 3,900 this year, and 17,400 or so thus far worldwide. There were only 3,250 words or so in the retirements at a glance/replacement names sections in 2007, wheras there were about 34,000 words on all of the monthly archives, about 7,500 in Dean's Archive, about 4,400 in Felix's, and about 2,500 in the seasonal archives(1, 2, and 3). Can we beat 2007 this year? I sure hope we do! We haven't even reached the half of it in 2011, and what's better is it isn't over yet. I only estimated these numbers, but this is still quite remarkable. Here is a more general picture: :*2007 total: ~58,450 words. :*2007 at this time: ~5700 words. :*2008 total: ~43,950 words. :*2008 at this time: ~1500 words. :*2011 total: TBA :*2011 at this time: ~17,400 words. According to this, we have more words worldwide than 2007 and 2008 had at this time combined and doubled. also, knowing this year is far from over, we could really have a sharp surge in activity come the heart of the season. (Arlene) is just the beginning. Ryan1000 02:11, June 28, 2011 (UTC) : :For this to develop into a tropical depression, it will have to establish more convection around the broad :low pressure center before the hurricane recon goes out there. Anyone agree? 71.99.28.67 02:02, June 28, 2011 (UTC) ::Very nice analysis Ryan. I am shocked at how many words have been posted already this year compared to 2007 (especially compared to 2007, since 2007 had a nearly 2 month head start to the NAtl season). And 71.99.28.67, the storm is hardly close to a tropical depression right now. Here is NHC's definition of a tropical cyclone (I bolded what I think 95L has already achieved): A warm-core '''non-frontal synoptic-scale cyclone, originating over tropical or subtropical waters', with organized deep convection and a closed surface wind circulation about a well-'defined center'. It still has quite a bit to go, but if the shear would drop faster this storm could be a TD tomorrow. Yqt1001 02:20, June 28, 2011 (UTC) :I would expect TD one/Arlene in about two days, but not right now. The most active years in Hurricane Wiki history as of now are: :#2007 :#2008 :#2010 :#2011 :#2009 However, at the rate we are going. I highly doubt 2007 will remain the most active when this year is over. I strongly think we will surpass them at one point or another, especially if we get a couple of big U.S. landfalls this year to increase the number of visitors for the retirements at a glance section, if we won't already get more soon for the SHem. The WMO will announce the retirees there in this December, I think. It also kinda baffles me to how 2007 didn't equal or lose to 2008, because, well, we had a ton of short-lived storms in 2007, but there were many more days of active storms in 2008 than that, but perhaps people just didn't pay as much attention to the north Atlantic that year. Ryan1000 03:06, June 28, 2011 (UTC) :I agree with you Ryan, 2011 could easily pass 2007 as the most active Hurricane Wikia year. Anyways, recon is a go. First ATL recon since Tomas (which was my first storm I tracked on this website :D), NHC seems really interested in this invest. We'll see what recon says about 95L. I'm thinking 60-70% at 2PM. Yqt1001 15:20, June 28, 2011 (UTC) ::There should be no excuse to that... This storm will be given a seperate archive even if it diesn't become named, let alone numbered; I can't think of an INVEST with this much attention. It will slowly head towards Mexico, but interaction with land may slow it down a bit, if it doesn't rapidly develop in the BoC, and we still have a long ways left until the AHS is over. I think it may be up to 60% at the 2PM advisory, but not TD one until perhaps tomorrow. Ryan1000 17:01, June 28, 2011 (UTC) :::TCFA issued by the FWC, I think this will be at 70%. Recon is entering the storm atm. Darren23Edits|Mail 17:32, June 28, 2011 (UTC) THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED TODAY...BUT THE ACCOMPANYING SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THE SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION LATER TODAY OR ON WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE IS CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING THE AREA. You win Darren! Also..first red circle of the atl season! And looks like we'll see TD1 this time tomorrow. Yqt1001 17:46, June 28, 2011 (UTC) 90% - Hurricane Hunters located a LLCC. Is the Atlantic starting soon? I think so! HurricaneFiona 20:47, June 28, 2011 (UTC) :::SPECIAL TWO! ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 400 PM EDT TUE JUN 28 2011 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... 1. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WAS ABLE TO LOCATE A LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF CIRCULATION. HOWEVER...THE ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT SUFFICIENTLY ORGANIZED TO DESIGNATE THE SYSTEM AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT THIS TIME. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE LIKELY TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THE LOW HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT ANY TIME. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...90 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 5 TO 10 MPH. INTERESTS ALONG THE EAST COAST OF MEXICO IN THE STATES OF TAMAULIPAS AND VERACRUZ SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM...AS A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS TONIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN MEXICO OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER PASCH/BERG NNNN ::::Looks like we'll almost for sure see TD1 within the next 24 hours! Yqt1001 21:35, June 28, 2011 (UTC) :::::The big question is, will it be TD1 or Arlene... There are plenty of tropical storm winds well away from the center. My bet: it will be classified as a TS once D-Max starts. Darren23Edits|Mail 21:41, June 28, 2011 (UTC) ::::I'm thinking TS Arlene. The storm is looking better and better as it goes, and if it manages to continue organizing deep into DMIN, I don't see why Arlene won't happen. Yqt1001 22:22, June 28, 2011 (UTC) Tropical Storm Arlene Welcome to the 2011 Atlantic hurricane season!!!!!! (that was a bit faster than I thought) Tropical storm warning issued for Mexico. Current pressure is 1003mb and winds are at 40mph. Expected to reach 60mph winds before landfall. Yqt1001 23:54, June 28, 2011 (UTC) :There we go! "The 2011 Atlantic hurricane season has oficially begun." It's moving a bit slowly, so hurricane status isn't completly out of the question, and this is about the same time last year Alex developed and hit Mexico. Ryan1000 00:02, June 29, 2011 (UTC) : :So we have Arlene I think she will reach between 60mph to 75mph at most.It is incredible how fast she strength.Allan Jeffs '00:15 June 29, 2011(UTC) Stupid edit conflicts >:(. Anywho, the NHC's forecast path for Arlene is here, and here is what they also said: WATCHES AND WARNINGS CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO FROM BARRA DE NAUTLA NORTHWARD TO BAHIA ALGODONES. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... *BARRA DE NAUTLA TO BAHIA ALGODONES A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK AT 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ARLENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.7 WEST. ARLENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE WEST IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF ARLENE IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA ON THURSDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ARLENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER THE MEXICAN STATES OF TAMAULIPAS AND VERACRUZ...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES. WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY LATE WEDNESDAY...MAKING OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. STORM SURGE...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES. Hmmm. It appears Arlene promises an intersting start to the Atlantic hurricane season, and is a sign of what's to come. Ryan1000 00:25, June 29, 2011 (UTC) DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...THERE HAS BEEN AN INCREASE IN THE COVERAGE AND ORGANIZATION OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOW PRESSURE AREA IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. DATA T-NUMBERS FROM SPECIAL DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS AT 2245 UTC FROM SAB AND TAFB WERE 2.5 AND 2.0...RESPECTIVELY. THE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON ALREADY FOUND AN AREA OF 30 TO 35 KT SURFACE WINDS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. BASED ON THE EARLIER AIRCRAFT OBSERVATIONS AND RECENT SATELLITE TRENDS...THE SYSTEM IS UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM... THE FIRST OF THE 2011 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/6. A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL WEAKNESS NORTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL UNTIED STATES BUILDS EASTWARD. THIS SHOULD CAUSE THE TRACK OF ARLENE TO BEND TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-SOUTHWEST. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO AND THE NHC FORECAST IS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING. THE SHEARING AFFECTS OF THE RETREATING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ARE LESSENING AND THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PERHAPS THE ONE LIMITING FACTOR FOR SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION COULD BE THE BROAD NATURE OF THE CYCLONE CIRCULATION. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE STATISTICAL MODEL OUTPUT. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0000Z 21.2N 93.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 29/0600Z 21.7N 94.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 29/1800Z 22.0N 95.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 30/0600Z 22.0N 96.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 30/1800Z 22.0N 97.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 01/1800Z 21.5N 100.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 96H 02/1800Z...INLAND $$ FORECASTER BROWN/KIMBERLAIN. YE [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Forum:2010_Pacific_hurricane_season '''T'ropical] [http://hurricanes.wikia.com/wiki/Special:Contributions/YE 'C'yclone] 00:53, June 29, 2011 (UTC) :Hurricane Arlene is not completly out of the question, but the large and broad circulation may hinder it if it's proxmitity to land doesn't either. However, it may organize overnight and tomorrow. It has until Thursday to make landfall, so it's not out of the woods yet. Ryan1000 01:18, June 29, 2011 (UTC) ::Arlene looks miles better than what it was 12 hours ago. Recon is going in and I'm guessing they'll find at least 45 kt winds... even higher. '''Darren23Edits|Mail 11:46, June 29, 2011 (UTC) :::Good call Darren...45 knot winds at the last update (50mph). Yqt1001 15:06, June 29, 2011 (UTC) ::Hmm. Arlene unexpectedly headed south-southwest rescently, but due to the organized structure of the storm, the NHC has now placed a hurricane watch in effect for parts of Mexico. A category one landfall is certainly not out of the question, but it probrably won't be that bad either way. Ryan1000 17:39, June 29, 2011 (UTC) :::I am so sorry that I have not been able to post anything because I had a computer error. Anyway, it is nice to see some activity. I hope Arlene becomes a hurricane! BTW, if Arlene can't make it to hurricane status, the '87 Arlene is still the most recent "Arlene" to reach hurricane status. Andrew444 20:22, June 29, 2011 (UTC) ::The HHs are currently in Arlene, which is why NHC left Arlene at 50mph even though the hurricane hunters are finding hurricane force winds. I wouldn't be surprised to see Hurricane Arlene sometime before landfall. We'll see what happens when/if they release a special TWO or at 8PM. Yqt1001 20:56, June 29, 2011 (UTC) :::It's a hurricane alright! SFMR winds last pass were at 66 kts, and pressure has dropped to 996 hPa. The NHC made a huge error last advisory. Darren23Edits|Mail 21:44, June 29, 2011 (UTC) ::::Whoops. I was wrong. "Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...MAX FL AND SFC WINDS BOTH CONVECTION INDUCED. MAX WINDS NR CNTR APPROX 30 - 35 KTS." Darren23Edits|Mail 21:47, June 29, 2011 (UTC) :::::What? This thing can't be weakening in the state it's in right now, they might have made an error, and even so, the storm is really starting to organize itself as it heads westward slowly. If it doesn't become a hurricane tonight, I'm pretty sure it will have a good chance of becoming one tomorrow before it makes landfall. But we'll have to see. Ryan1000 22:17, June 29, 2011 (UTC) ::::Well the center relocated north-eastward buying it some more time. Hurricane warning issued for parts of Mexico, I think the NHC thinks it could be Hurricane Arlene before landfall, but they don't want to admit it (?). I think it's really close to being a hurricane right now, and I think it could easily be one before landfall. We'll see what happens later. Yqt1001 23:26, June 29, 2011 (UTC) :::If it's trying to back away from the coastline, it probrably will become a hurricane, possibly by later today if it organizes enough. It's slowly moving, and is kinda wavering in the Gulf, not doing so much as it ever so slowly heads towards a landfall In Mexico, at the same general time Alex did so last year, just one day from now. Even so, the winds are currently 60 mph, and it just needs to bulk up 14(15 rounding to the nearest 5) mph more to become Hurricane Arlene. Based on the water vapor imagery, it's clearly starting to organize into a hurricane, and I'd be surprised if it doesn't do so later today. Also, it's kinda baffling to me that the NHC put up hurricane warnings for Mexico when Hurricane Arlene isn't even in the forecast from them... Ryan1000 01:33, June 30, 2011 (UTC) :::Ryan, I think you're right. It's strange how Mexico has put up hurricane warnings when Arlene isn't even forecast to be one. Andrew444 02:08, June 30, 2011 (UTC) ::Well, the NHC forecast could change at anytime, and it could certainly become one, perhaps the NHC is just too scared to admit it will become a hurricane. I personally can see Hurricane Arlene coming sometine this afternoon(it's technically June 30 UTC), but it has to get on with it. Ryan1000 02:52, June 30, 2011 (UTC) :It gotta hurry, it has about 12 hours left until it makes landfall. Could it become a hurricane in that time? Definitely, but I'm starting to doubt if it will. It just seems like time is quickly running out. Yqt1001 04:03, June 30, 2011 (UTC) ::It's winds haven't jumped rescently, still only at 60 mph, but it's not completly out of the question... If it does become Hurricane Arlene, it will likely stay a hurricane for only 3 hours or so until it dies out for good. Even so, it is slowly getting closer to it's demise. It's pretty well-organized, but it's proxmitity to land will limit it's maximum intensity to no more than 75 mph or so. Ryan1000 05:15, June 30, 2011 (UTC) :: ::Now at 65 mph, Category 1 isn't out of the question, but a re-Alex is way too far. Also saying, even though this is off topic, this is the TENTH '''time '''Arlene has been used, making it the most often used name. And I'm guessing it will not be retired (you know about Mexico not removing Alex, Karl, Emily, Matthew, etc. off the list). Andrew444 11:39, June 30, 2011 (UTC) ::OMG... Also worth saying is 'Arlene' is the name of Garfield's girlfriend!!! (THIS IS SO IRONIC!) And I'll tell you I feel so bad fo her! Andrew444 12:00, June 30, 2011 (UTC) :Arlene already made landfall, so it has next advisory to become a hurricane until it moves inland, which I just can't see. Arlene currently ties Estelle of the EPac for the most commonly used name in the history of the western hemisphere, and because it's impact on Mexico probrably won't be that bad, I can see her name returning on the list yet again in the 2017 season. And the 1888-1889 seasons remain the only two seasons on record in which a June hurricane formed for two straight years. Ryan1000 14:51, June 30, 2011 (UTC) Arlene was really close to hurricane status when it made landfall. It only had a bit to go before it could've established a complete eyewall and spin up a bit more. Looks like she'll peak at 65mph... Let's hope Mexico only gets drought busting rains =) (but I doubt that, Arlene is huuge and has pretty fast winds) Yqt1001 16:39, June 30, 2011 (UTC) ::Well, then again the impacts probrably won't be so bad. The wind field from Arlene extends out a long ways, but the strongest winds will only be in the area where it makes landfall just south of the city of Tampico. If Mexico didn't retire Alex, Matthew, or most importantly, Karl of last year, then there should be no reason why Arlene should be. I can see her coming back again in 2017. Was still great to watch though! Ryan1000 16:52, June 30, 2011 (UTC) :And latest advisory. Winds down to 50 mph and pressure up to 997. It's still moving W at 7 mph, but it won't last very long as the mountains of Mexico squeeze all the moisture out of this thing by tomorrow. I'd be surprised if it lasts very long at all. Ryan1000 18:07, June 30, 2011 (UTC) : :Do you think that Honduras will be hit by a tropical system this year? Allan Jeffs 18:19,June 30, 2011 (UTC) Why mention Honduras? I think not. Tropical cyclones rarely make landfall there, because they only have a northern coast. Storms like Mitch of 1998 have made landfall(and killed thousands of people) or Fifi, which just paralleled northern Honduras in 1974. I would have to say no. Ryan1000 19:30, June 30, 2011 (UTC) Changing the topic... Arlene is dying away. It was fun tracking her. And yes, in 24 hours, the NHC predicts Arlene to be nothing more than a remnant low of herself (unless by some freak miracle she can survive over Mexico and become a EPac cyclone like Fifi and Diana did). Andrew444 20:31, June 30, 2011 (UTC) :That won't happen. Arlene's circulation is too small to be able to survive across Mexico's mountains. Also, I don't think the impact was that bad either. It may have caused some damage and deaths and gotten some media attention, but it wasn't as bad as it could've been. Ryan1000 20:36, June 30, 2011 (UTC) :Arlene is REALLY dying. She only has 40 mph winds and 1000 mb pressure, she'll be gone in <24 hours. :And the orginization is gone! Even in 12 hours, Arlene will be just a TD. :( Andrew444 21:43, June 30, 2011 (UTC) I'd be surprised if she can live 6 hours more, but 24 hours ago I would expect it to live another 48 hours. I wouldn't be surprised if the next NHC advisory downs it to a TD, and is their last advisory too. It was great to track, though. Ryan1000 21:47, June 30, 2011 (UTC) :And it's down to a Tropical Depression. The last advisory still hasn't been issued, but it's pretty much dead anyway. Archive time. Ryan1000 00:56, July 1, 2011 (UTC) ::Final advisory is up. Yqt1001 03:59, July 1, 2011 (UTC) :Was great tracking you, Arlene! Ryan1000 04:14, July 1, 2011 (UTC)